Wednesday, March 11, 2009

A new world order?

If we are to believe a Russian dean of diplomatic academy, Igor Panarin, a new world order might be in the offing. According to him, the United States that we know may not be what it is come autumn. The union will disintegrate into six different territories as a result of the financial crisis that plagued the US last year.

Through an interpreter, the soviet diplomat, who had forecasted the collapse since 1998, said that the six territories would compose of
California Republic (California, Washington, Oregon, Nevada, Arizona, Utah and Idaho)which would be absorbed or fall under the influence of China, and the “Texas Republic” (Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and Florida) that would become part of or fall under Mexico’s influence...
Canada would get or influence the “Central North American Republic” (the Midwest plus Montana, Wyoming and Colorado), “Atlantic America” (the northeastern American seaboard plus Kentucky, Tennessee, and North and South Carolina) would end up with the European Union or the United Kingdom.
Alaska would revert back to Russia, and Japan and China would take over Hawaii.

The forecast is based mainly on the US's plunging economy which continue to plummet to this time. Should this happen, there will be a new world leader and I wonder where we, a nation whose econo-political stability has always been in question, will put us. For sure we can kiss our Kalayaan claim in the Spratley Islands goodbye for according to Panarin, China would take over the California Republic :-)

Personally, I still think that the breakup is a very far scenario. Panarin's prediction is based on the collapse of the USSR and has likened Obama to Russia's last leader Mikhail Gorbachev. There is a big difference, in my opinion. While the USSR shared with the US in terms of power, its ideologies are different, hence the mindset of their people. The USSR may have enjoyed the privilieges of being a world power but this may have only been with their political leaders. The US has shared it with their countrymen living the American dream of someday making it rich at the very least. I think that there's no way that any American would allow a foreign country take over its affairs knowing the potential of losing their own privileges. As Randy David said “While I could imagine California declaring independence, why would they allow themselves to be absorbed by China? Why would Californians think that their crisis would be solved by China?

But of course, we cannot deny the possibility of a US collapse. After all it is faced with a terrible blow and has not yet solved its problems to date and many things, including the impossible can still happen.


Bro.Dennis said...

Too far a possibility for the divisions to happen indeed. They have much more to lose if they did.

cathy said...

russia's propaganda.

china is also on the recession. million peope who lost their jobs are
restless. the government fears that there might be some violence.

russia is also the same. in fact, in the latest Forbes list of richest people, many of its paper billlionaires dropped from the first 100.

bill gates is still number one, followed by warren buffet who despite the losses hold the top 2 slots.

california is where silicon valley is. us is a big market for china's exports. in fact that was the mission of the clinton when she went to china to assure the country that it will continue buying from it in exchange of some deals.

Everlito (ever) Villacruz said...

since napagusapan din ang china!

teka..dito sa kuwait mas marami ang made in china..:)

saka bakit kaya mura pag china made,isa kaya itong dahilan ng mababang uri ng produkto?

bayi said...

I have tried to be open minded as I read the post but I still find it absurd. There are many things wrong with the US and its financial system but what has been posted still won't happen. It will take a whole lot more even to be near what has been predicted. A whole lot more, really.

T said...

Hi K. Rols,

I’ve got a few minutes of spare time (perhaps too much) on my hands for a response so here goes:

I don’t know really know of this Panarin but from his predictions and I don’t think I want to (it seems to me that russian socio-political prognosticators tend to have a warped sense of the world - too exaggerated and often reflective of their own harsh/marxist?/feudalistic world view). While the predictions of Panarin’s are within the realm of possibility, I don’t think for one second that any one of them is even close to being plausible. Any self respecting analyst, or even high school student in the US who has a sense of the “spirit” or backbone upon which the country stands and the strength of the US political system will know that Panarin’s thoughts are utterly without forethought or common sense.

I give the chances of Panarins predictions much less odds than say De La Salles’ high school basketball team winning the NBA title or George W. Bush somehow getting reelected to the White House for a third term. These are current impossibilities because DLSZ is not part of the NBA and Bush is not eligible to run for the White House again. They are or would become future possibilities, however ridiculous, if someone were to amend the NBA’s teams to include high schools in Manila or were they to amend the Constitution of the United States to allow Bush to run for term #3. No one in their right mind would attempt do this to the NBA or for "GW" - the worst president of the modern era in my humble opinion. Anyway, Panarin's predictions don’t even begin to reach this level of (in)conceivability.

While it’s probably true that if North America were broken up politically into different regional entities based on socio-economic considerations these entities/states would be more highly effective (see Joel Garreau’s 1981 book - “The Nine Nations of North America” or I don’t for a moment think this will ever happen in your kid’s yet unborn grandkid’s lifetime unless there is some new type of indefensible weapon developed by our enemies, deadly contagion, or catastrophic natural event that rearranges North America in that time. Breaking up or allowing parts of the US to secede would be akin to someone trying to kidnap all the children in the country. The citizenry and gov’t of the US just would not stand for it and would put any and all division aside to ensure the unity and well-being of the country.

As regards the Global Financial Crisis, it's true that the US economy and financial system is currently in serious distress and shambles but it is far from being down and out or even close to the circumstances that afflicted the nation during the Great Depression (GD) - a time of 25% unemployment, widespread homelessness and bread-lines. If today’s evolving US economic crisis at it’s worst probable scenario were measured against the Great Depression of the 1930‘s - it would be a “3” and the Great Depression a “10“. There is much less unemployment (currently 8%) and homelessness (tens of 1000’s vs. millions during the GD). As bad as the GD was for the US, the unity of the country was never in danger because of the strength of the political system and spirit of the country. Now, if US unity was never really threatened during the GD, the darkest economic period in the country’s history, and we are not now nor will be close to depression levels - how vulnerable can the United States be to disintegration in 2009? Rhetoric aside, the “State of the Union” today is much better than it was in the 1930’s. The US political and economic system is a lot more resilient and our citizenry a lot wiser today in dealing with problems than it was in the 1930’s. The country has resolved many serious & contentious issues (civil rights, unpopular wars) and learned, evolved and matured from it’s experiences since then. As evidence, the US has not had any armed insurgency on a significant scale since the Civil War of the 1860’s. Political issues since then have been resolved at the ballot box or thru relatively peaceful protest and not widespread armed struggle. This is a testament to the ability of the system to allow for meaningful political expression, debate and change - most often for the better. And this, among many reasons, is why it is practically inconceivable to see the US disintegrating any time soon in the face of serious economic distress. Even with the infuriating scams perpetrated upon the American people by a couple of insurance and investment firms American taxpayers are still forking over hundreds of billions of dollars to cover the losses of what basically amounts to a scam (specifically, AIG) and doing it with relatively little protest to the federal government. No crowds are marching on Washington over this - maybe they should be - but I think that overwhelmingly, most Americans believe wholeheartedly in the system and have tremendous faith in our current leaders to get the country back on the right track (and especially now that GW is out.)

I know the world also believes in the solvency and viability of the US. As an overwhelming vote in complete contrast to Mr. Panarin, are all those millions of investors, thousands of financial institutions, and numerous central govt’s/banks around the world holding and even increasing their reserves of dollars and US Treasury bonds almost to the point of panic during the height of the global financial crisis in Sept thru Nov. of last year. They must apparently believe that the US is not about to collapse at the sight of it’s pressing economic problems and distressing deficit.

But seriously, the US will come out of it's deep recession. It will take confidence, spirit, and a willingness to work and struggle together for many years - but the US has all these qualities in great abundance. But I don't think it's going to take several years to get out of this mess. With significant stimulus and global coordination daylight could be coming as soon as the end of this year. I think you'll see a somewhat meaningul recovery coming within two to three years. Don't misunderstand, the US will contract further and be bleak and nasty in the near term and the global economy will probably exhibit weak to zero growth for years to come but the US will right itself - in preparation for the next global crisis - (energy, water, wars, inflation). Of course the trillion dollar stimulus and budget deficits american's will be paying for years and possibly decades to come, and looks to lead the world into an inflationary spiral but that's another story - coming down the pike in a couple of years along with the recovery. For now, just know that the US is still the world’s lender of last resort/financial rock and only standing superpower. Barring some unforeseen destructive technology or natural cataclysm this situation will not change anytime soon.

I would agree with you that the difference between the US and Russia and China is a matter of ideology. From ideology you arrive at a governing system that greatly determines a country’s long term fate. I strongly believe that China and Russia are in greater danger of imploding or collapsing during this century than the US ever will be for the next century. Why? Because gov’ts that are corrupt and absolutist tend to rot or disintegrate when faced with severe economic crisis. Corrupt central command structures are prone to overthrow when times get dicey or rough because they don’t effectively allow dissension and expression to relieve the explosive pressure from the masses. With too much responsibility in the hands of government they will receive the brunt of the blame when things go wrong. An overbearing gov’t is not likely to contain political dissension and the masses indefinitely especially during extreme financial hardship because it may choke or suppress the fuel (it’s citizens output) which is keeping it in power.

For a distinguished view on the US's near term military outlook there's a short article out in the March 9th issue of The Atlantic Monthly by journalist Robert Kaplan about how the Obama Administration, as a result of the economic crisis and the past blundering on the war in Iraq & Afghanistan, is likely going to pull in it's horns and shrink it's military presence around the world just as others such as China and India increase their military might over the next decade.

".... I do not expect any sudden slashing of defense budgets. What I foresee is a more gradual siphoning of money away from vital programs over the next decade, even as China, India, and other countries enlarge their navies and other forces. This will not necessarily lead to a security dilemma for the U.S., but it will certainly lead to a multipolar world and the end of American dominance. The only development that could change this equation would be a new and sudden threat – and one other than mass-casualty terrorism. For while terrorism would lead to larger budgets for the intelligence establishment, the conventional air and sea platforms from which great powers are made would not be affected.

Defense policy will be increasingly geared toward protecting the homeland, even as globalization makes for a smaller, more intricately connected world. America, in the final analysis, will be better protected, even as its global reach wanes. That is what to expect if the recession is still with us a year from now."

"The Shrinking Superpower" - The Atlantic, Dispatch March 9, 2009 by Robert D. Kaplan

(Robert D. Kaplan is a national correspondent for The Atlantic and a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security.)

So I would say to anyone concerned with the US nation state: don't worry one moment about the future of the US. It's very strong and not about to exit as superpower or disintegrate USSR style on the world's stage any time soon because of the worsening financial crisis. Again, the potential depths of this economic crisis will not even begin to undermine US solidarity (wow, that coupling sounds weird! like it should only be used for Poland or eastern europe)

Now with regard to China and the Philippines: I think you have every right to be worried about China which is the real potential boogeyman - yes, the fate of the Spratlys is a serious concern, but I believe there are even more distressing concerns for the Philippines. I myself am worried about China's economic situation first, it's demographic situation second, and then it's military might (Spratlys, fishing, etc). If growth in China were to stagnate or fall below the tolerable rate of 5-6% for a prolonged period - anything could happen. Already, there is reportedly talk of Chinese intellectuals and officials comparing themselves to the old Soviet Union - probably as a worrying warning to themselves of potential civil strife that could undermine political control, territorial dominion, and of course, access to concubines. Recall that the Soviet Union’s political control was finally undone by its economic failures. Although I would surely welcome the unraveling of the totalitarian regime in China, and I don't see it happening anytime soon, I hope that political change would come about in an orderly fashion. God forbid you have a huge exodus of chinese men to the rest of Asia. The Philippines has enough trouble trying to support it's own people. Of course I don't think boatloads of chinese fleeing to the Phils is a likely occurrence anytime soon. On the bright side I guess you could have chinese resto's or cuisine proliferating in far flung provinces like Ilocos Norte! Can you say chop suey or egg foo young?

Adding to the middle kingdom's economic woes China is faced with serious if not scary demographic problems (Japan and Korea too for that matter!). China is quickly becoming a society of elders and there aren't nearly enough young people to replace the coming wave of retirees and keep the economy humming or even growing. I read somewhere that as early as 2020 China will start to significantly feel the negative impact of dealing with its top heavy greying population and by 2030 or soon afterward it's going to be facing a huge problem. And what about the staggering and growing imbalance in the ratio of men to women? - what are the tens of millions of hormone raging young chinese males to do when they can't find mates? In the future I say we boycott wasabi, chocolate, oysters and shellfish to China, or anything that gets the libido in overdrive. Mushu pork anyone? And speaking of food and China -and this is not entirely off topic- what is the Philippines to do when seafood starts disappearing in even larger numbers because of all those newly well-off and emerging seafood eaters? What about the price of pork or chicken if China cannot raise enough swine or has some bird or ebola type virus that forces it to wipe out a significant part of it's livestock? I'd say, tell your cousins in the province to get those pigpens ready, just in case.

To bring this full oval, Panarin's prognostications have about as much a chance as the Pope and the Vatican converting to Islam. I don’t know what sort of weed Panarin is smoking, shooting or snorting but it must be some pretty pure, uncut stuff. I’d like to sample some myself to catch a glimpse of his creative/US-forsaken world. My own prediction on Panarin: his foretelling may get his name up in lights and probably make a short term name for himself - but he’s no Nostradamus. Panarin's kind of prognosticating helps to sell books and magazines, but I certainly wouldn‘t buy his idiotology.

Finally, if the US were on the brink of disintegration (within the next 10 yrs), you and the world would already know it and the Philippines would have a lot more to worry about than it's Superpower backup. The rest of the world would already be in a calamitous state with extreme hoarding, runaway inflation and mass anxiety/panic if any real signs of a US collapse were on the horizon. I can't fathom what kind of run on all banks would occur if the world started to lose confidence in the US as the safe harbor, lender of last resort and financial engine of all engines. Before you could say "deal or no deal" life in the industrialized world would start to go dark. Long before any US disintegration were to occur the markets in money, bonds, and equities around the world would have sniffed it out and priced in a Mega-Depression. It would feel like several nuclear bombs were dropped around the world - as if the world as we know it were coming to an end. Then, maybe I'd start to think, hmmm, maybe Guam is in danger of going "red" and reevaluate. But seriously, cmon.

cbs said...

pag naging china na ang california, e di magiging californiatown na ang dating chinatown...

sa pagkimkim naman ng russia sa alaska, dapat si sarah palin na lang kunin nila para walang kaobje-objection.

Auee said...

The US and the UK are both suffering heavy losses. Wag nang bansa e, tingnan na lang natin sa epek sa mga OFW katulad ko.

Dati enjoy na enjoy kami sa disparity nang Forex, ngayon though malaki pa din naman kesa peso, feel na feel nang bulsa namin ang bawas kapag nagre-remit sa Pinas.

Very grim and bleak ang outlook dito. Unknown daw kung kelan magiging stable uli ang economy. In the meantime yung mga briton na nakatira sa mainland euro-pe, nagbabalikan na sa laki nang gastos.

rolly said...

Broden It's so nice to see you commenting on my blog.

cath Lucio Tan and Henry Sy's ranking increased in the Forbes list. Pabayaran kaya natin sa kanila utang natin sa world bank? hehe

Ever Alam ko mas bata ka sakin. There used to be a time na ang paniwala, pag made in Japan, mahinang klase. Dati ang sinasabing magaling e Germany pero kita mo naman, ang ganda na ng market for anything Japanese. Maaaring mangyari din yan sa China products.

bayi Absurd is the right word.

Tony Nice to see you here, too. And what a loadful of comments! That is truly appreciated. I have shown your response to Ate Nitz and will do so with your nephews and nieces. I remember now that when we saw each other at MOA for dinner, you mentioned that something big was going to happen. I brushed that thought aside never realizing how prophetic the statement would be. You're a fine good analyst, indeed.

cbs califoniatown, hehehe
Sarah Palin? Oh yes, she can view Russia from where she is.

auee The disparity in the forex is indeed being felt by the OFW's and much more, of their families here. Yung dating tinatanggap nilang malaki, maliit na ngayon. And the OFW's will have to send more (which is of course burdensome to them) should they want their relatives to enjoy the same luxuries they used to have before.

Anonymous said...

Agree with Bro. Dennis and you, Ka Rolly. Malayong mangyari sa US ang nangyari sa Russia.

BTW, musta ka na... malapit na dalaw ko sa Pinas... April 15... will email you my details.

- EricC (a.k.a kiwinoy)

BlogusVox said...

Empires comes and go and I think US has reached its peak. But I don't think it will come to that scenario where a foreign power will take over some of the states. Civil war ang mangyayari. I think a French-like political influence is more acceptable. Still a power but a minor one.

As for China getting bigger. Nakakatakot no? These people won't blink an eye to get what they want. If they have no qualms in dealing with their own people, how much more for a small country like ours.

Joseph D said...

California would go to the Philippines... because we've been slowly and secretly invading that state hehehe...

just a joke, but it still would be a possibility :)

rolly said...

kiwinoy uy, malapit ka na palang umuwi. Actually, akala ko Feb ka uuwi eh. haha

blogusvox Amazing how they can't blink an eye when theirs is much shorter for them to do that than ours, no? hehe

Joseph D Come to think of it, LA and SF are Filipino infested already. haha

Panaderos said...

The US is still a military and economic power to reckon with. Yes, a lot of manufacturing operations have gone to China but the US is still the leading of manufactured products in the world. What has shifted to China is the manufacture of consumer products. The US has simply focused its manufacturing on high-end, high technology products such as jet engines, trains, weapons systems, etc.

I am not too crazy about a world where China is the dominant economic and military power. It is for the simple reason that China doesn't have a strong history of respect for human rights and does not have strong democratic institutions. I value my personal and political freedoms and I would rather side with a country, although not perfect, has shown that it is a nation of laws and not of men.

ipanema said...

too far out. the great depression in the 30s went by, still the U.S. is standing by.

new world order? hmmm...sounds like a boy band to me. :)

dave said...

Must have had lots of vodka that guy. There was more rationale in disintegration before the crisis than there is now: with most revenues coming from the eastern board and the pacific sections, the midest and south could have been left out. See, when John Kerry lost, the blue votes are generally in the urban areas and both sides of the US - the middle it seems were red, pretty much as it was with Gore. But that's about the only way one could make sense of a separation. Perhaps if the republicans continued to be in power and there was civil unrest but at this point when the dow just rallied after some government +private sector plan to buy the toxic assets, any fearmongering theory such as his is without basis. Some science fiction stories have explored this possibility - interesting until i saw China and Japan jointly taking over Hawaii. (Is that some collateral seize up if the US didn't pay?) Perhaps he plans to write a novel. Besides isn't the NWO meme an urban legend supposed to be the brainchild of bankers and rotschilds? I'd ask for numbers to prove his projection if he's got them.

rolly said...

Dave I don't think this is based on numbers but merely on logic - or the lack thereof!

Nicanor David said...

marami kasing intsik dito sa west coast, bossing, from california all the way up to british columbia. para tuloy silent invasion, ano?

now, we own the take out market. tomorrow... THE WORLD!

pag nagkataon, magiging pangalan ng state namin ay Ka Leh Pong Yee.


rolly said...

BAtjay Ayus!